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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still